Threat of asteroids

1990/09/01 Arregi Bengoa, Jesus Iturria: Elhuyar aldizkaria

• Astronomia

In August of last year the asteroid 1989 passed by the Earth at four million km. In our 29th section of Elhuyar we describe the disaster that would cause the blow of this body on Earth. As an example, we also mentioned the theory of the disappearance of dinosaurs. It seems that the long winter caused by dust raised by the impact of a meteorite was the cause of the disappearance of dinosaurs (65 million years ago, after more than 100 million years on Earth).

The same article included some studies on the orbit of the asteroid 1989. The consequences were quite worrying because they claimed that the asteroid could collide with Earth. Although they have not mentioned this specific case, Clark Chapman and David Morrison, authors of the book Cosmic Catastrophes, have dealt in an article on this problem. They consider that the need to foresee such an “accident” that can end civilization from Earth is not on the list of national and international priorities where it needs it.

To cope with the threat of asteroids it is convenient to launch "Project Spacewatch". Among other things, radars can be used in this task.

In June 1980, the Symposium organized by the NASA Advisory Council discussed, among other topics, this problem. The following year, the results of a study commissioned by Jet Propusion Laboratory were presented. In the results we can highlight that the annual probability of a shock with disastrous consequences for us is one in three hundred thousand (it may be a little higher, or in the most positive case of one million). In other words, the probability of collision in the average lifetime of a person is six thousand.

This data refers to the entire Earth, but if such a catastrophe occurred, we would all be affected, whether or not we died by collision. Therefore, the probability of a single person participating in such disasters is higher than expected. For example, it is roughly the same as electrocution death or several times greater than plane crash death. Therefore, even if it seems a lie, they are not numbers of rejection in any way.

These calculations, carried out by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, were the first step of the “Project Spacewatch” that NASA proposed to launch following the aforementioned symposium. The goal was to build radar and optical telescopes capable of finding asteroids and comets that threatened the Earth. The second step would be to design the response system. In the face of the possible collision, a space mission should be sent which should be found with the body to divert the star along the crash path (the bomb may explode on the flank).

While the problem does not have to be considered as of extreme urgency, it must be analyzed without excessive delay. First, Project Spacewatch should be given a new boost. Development of detection systems for possible interpreters at first and later clarification of the most appropriate method to avoid aggression.

According to the scientists cited, if we consider it interesting to hire fire insurance at home or play lottery, it is absolutely logical to invest in dealing with attacks that may come from heaven.