Expected earthquakes have not occurred

2002/12/01 Elhuyar Zientzia Iturria: Elhuyar aldizkaria

• Geologia

Two American geophysicists have shown that the model most used to predict earthquakes is useless.

Earthquakes occur when an energy that occurs when two tectonic plates collide. According to this model, energy storage requires a fixed period of time to predict when the next major earthquake will occur (value equal to or greater than 6 on the Richter scale).

This model was applied in an area of the San Andrés fault in California, in Parkfield. Cyclic earthquakes have existed in this area in the last 150 years and the fault structure is relatively simple to analyze.

Applying Parkfield's prediction calculations, they concluded that one of these major earthquakes would occur in 1987. But since 1966 there have been no strong earthquakes, so it seems that the technique does not serve in the simplest models either.