The Girl was coming, but she has not come

2003/07/21 Roa Zubia, Guillermo - Elhuyar Zientzia

• Klima
• Ozeanografia

The climatic phenomena of La Niña and El Niño do not appear with a certain frequency; sometimes, El Niño has occurred in successive years, as in the period 1991-1994, but usually lasts from one to the other. On the other hand, the phenomenon of The Girl occurs in the sequence of the Boy in a few months, but not always, having one does not ensure that it is the other.

However, both phenomena have a great influence in the countries near the Pacific, generating floods and droughts. In addition, according to some experts, this effect extends to other remote places. Hence the importance of announcing El Niño and La Niña, phenomena that can be predicted by measuring the temperature trend on the surface of the Pacific Ocean. At the moment, this is the best method, but it is not entirely reliable.

Summary of NOAA 2002-2003 measurements. From October to December it is clearly seen El Niño, with the warm surface to the east, and from March to June the surface cooled, but it was not La Niña.

In March and April of this year the water cooled more than usual in the Eastern Pacific, which was a sign that the Girl could appear. Also, since last winter was El Niño, experts expected this "answer". The alarm went off. But in the following months the ocean surface began to warm up and reached previous levels. Meteorologists are surprised because according to the latest data the situation has decreased.

The experts have explained the observed: A violent convection in the Indian Ocean caused eastern winds, that is, in the opposite direction of the conventional ones. These winds extend almost to the east of the Pacific and are adversely affected by deep currents, warming the surface of the sea around Indonesia.

However, only this phenomenon cannot cause the transition The Child-The Girl, although it influences the process. Now meteorologists have learned from all the data.