The temperature of the Earth will continue to rise the XXI. until mid-century

2002/04/22 Orobengoa, Olatz - Elhuyar Zientziaren Komunikazioa

• Klima

The temperature of the Earth will increase in the coming decades, regardless of efforts made to avoid the greenhouse effect.

Two groups have conducted in-depth research on climate change and similar results have been obtained in both: it seems that in the coming decades the temperature will continue to rise and, compared to the average temperature of the 1990s, will increase worldwide between 0.3 and

1.3°C by 2020. Although it may not be so obvious to humans, scientists believe it will rise enough to melt glaciers and change the climate.

The efforts that can be made to prevent temperature increase have no immediate effects and therefore the XXI. Until the mid-twentieth century the temperature will continue to rise. However, the reduction in gas emissions currently occurring suggests that changes can be achieved fairly long term.

Each group has used a different method to reach that conclusion. On the one hand, R. of the University of Bern. Knutti's team has used a fairly simple model to predict climate evolution. After taking thousands of parameters that condition the climate and combine them randomly, the factors that can cause climate warming have been analyzed. Although it is a quick method, it is not very precise. On the other hand, the British team has used a much more concrete method. This has taken into account the changes that occur in the oceans and continents.

The publication of these results has been added to the launch of IPCC President Robert Watson. IPCC, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, is an organization working on climate change within the United Nations. He conducts and publishes climate studies and Robert Watson has so far been spokesperson and president of the organization. He is accused of politicizing the organization very much and is therefore removed from office. Watson has always made it clear that the main agent of climate change is man, and since he is within his organization the greatest achievement has been the creation of the Kyoto protocol. Now, instead, engineer Rajendra Pachauri has been appointed president.

Environmental groups have criticized the organization's decision, as Pachauri is a us-driven candidate. In addition, they claim that with the dismissal they wanted to silence the critical voice, since the data published by the IPCC have so far been contrary to the interests of the United States.