Low probability

1999/02/01 Elhuyar Zientzia Iturria: Elhuyar aldizkaria

• Astronautika

Mathematical laws say that you cannot fool yourself for a long time. If something is likely to happen, it will eventually occur, especially when there is enough time for it. This law worries NASA authorities in recent times, in which the early phases of the ISS International Space Station are underway.

In fact, in the coming years it is foreseen the construction of a spider web composed of 30 modules, for which we will have to carry out numerous missions, recognizing the probability that each of these missions will go wrong. The greatest risks in space are the risk of getting radiation cancer for astronauts, the collision with a particle of the space for modules and the explosion of the gases it carries inside for rockets.

NASA has calculated all kinds of probabilities and their consequences are not very optimistic: the probability of a rocket explosion is 8%; the death of an astronaut by cancer of 1%; the probability that a particle will orient a module for 20 years is 42%; finally, the probability that a rocket will explode for 20 years with the station is 99%. It should be noted that for the construction of the ISS station more than 100 missions will be carried out and that although some probabilities are low, the probability of accidents increases. That's why Thomas Young, a member of NASA's Advisory Council, says that during these 100 missions people must be killed if they want to be realistic.