XXI. Dependent human population

2001/05/25 Galarraga Aiestaran, Ana - Elhuyar Zientzia

• Giza zientziak

According to the report released this week, population growth in developed countries has been virtually stagnant and population growth is due to Asian, African and Latin American countries.

Each year, measuring the difference between born and dead, the world population is added 83 million human beings, of which only one million correspond to developed countries. In fact, the United States is the only country with a fertility rate higher than that of substitution (2.1 children per woman) in developed countries.

In 1950, the population of developing countries doubled that of the most developed countries, while by 2050 this difference could be multiplied by 6. Thus, the population of developing countries will increase by 2.9 billion and developed countries by only 49 million. Thus, while the average of developing countries is 3.6 children per woman, that of the most developed countries is 1.6. The exception is China, where they still have ‘the only child of the couple’ policy.

The difference is remarkable and in the same country the difference between industrialized areas and poor areas is appreciated. For example, in the cities of southeastern India the date of birth has decreased considerably. On the other hand, in Bangladesh and Egypt, the observed birth drop has slowed.

The situation in Europe is very different. The number of children born is lower than that of the deceased and, in addition, due to the increase in life, the number of older people increases. Therefore, if not by immigration, the population will decline.

One of the most striking episodes in relation to the population has been the expansion of AIDS, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. As a result, the Population Reference Office has announced that the population of Botswuana, South Africa and Zimbabwe will decline over the next 50 years. A few years ago the effect of the epidemic could not be foreseen and the epidemic has changed all calculations on the population of those countries.

However, despite AIDS, the world's population will increase mainly thanks to Africa, which by 2050 will be one billion more people on this continent, that is, more than the population of all Europe (including Russia).

In Russia and Ukraine both birth and survival have declined. Both countries are experiencing the most notable natural decline of the Modern Age, with an annual growth of -0.7%.

China is the most populous country of today, with 1.27 billion inhabitants. In 2025 it is expected that the same country will have the most population and that will be 1.43 billion Chinese. After China, the second most populous country is India, with 1.03 billion, which expects to reach 1.36 billion by 2025. And the third most populous country is the United States, with 285 million inhabitants. In 2025 it remains third with 346 million.